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Steve Hoy

Category: Risk & Uncertainty

Coin Tossing

Understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty should lead to more careful thought about the consequences of our decisions, including that outcomes will be unknowable most of the time. This can be hard to accept, especially in Business.

Known Knowns

The nature of knowledge and ignorance is a serious philosophical problem; for decision-makers, it is a gnarly practical one too. Making important decisions in the face of uncertainty is unsettling and difficult. Few are up to the task.

Physics Envy

Economics and Business are poorly served by the overuse of confusing jargon and mathematics to seem more rigorous than is actually possible. Many try to reduce these fuzzy subjects to formulae and frameworks, and while this can help understanding, more often it is just a veneer of nonsense over something unknowable.